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Apple Is Headed For A Fall, Says Forrester Ceo

#61 User is offline   KLanD 

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Posted 26 April 2012 - 06:13 AM

View Postcrosswordbob, on 26 April 2012 - 05:47 AM, said:

View PostKLanD, on 26 April 2012 - 05:36 AM, said:

View Postartzy65, on 25 April 2012 - 04:32 PM, said:

View PostStevenKeller, on 25 April 2012 - 03:56 PM, said:

This world is absolutely full of creative and talented people. Jobs is not the only one. In some ways, a more laid back Apple just might be a better Apple. Good techies can make things happen and talented people can make those things look good. The real lesson from Jobs is that he was more concerned about quality than profits and that eventually proved to be the most profitable course. The magic of Apple is that I never owned an Apple product I was not absolutely delighted with and proud of. I got more than my money's worth every single time and I felt my Apple products were the best. Many companies produce products just like this because their CEOs get it. Jobs was not the only one.

The thing about Apple products is that you pick one up and say 'geez, these guys really love their work.'


I have never once thought that while using an Apple device.

The thought that usually comes to mind is "All that hype.. for this?"

I think much the same when looking at pieces by Picasso. However I'm not so close-minded to believe that those who think otherwise are deluded.


Never said the others were deluded, just trying to point out that not everyone fawns over Apple's products and that should be ok.
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#62 User is offline   crosswordbob 

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Posted 26 April 2012 - 06:24 AM

View PostKLanD, on 26 April 2012 - 06:13 AM, said:

Never said the others were deluded, just trying to point out that not everyone fawns over Apple's products and that should be ok.

Really? I could've sworn you "totally agreed" with LR's theory that Steve Jobs' great skill was convincing people they were innovating when they were in fact not. Would that not mean the millions who think otherwise aare delusional?

There are very few people here who would suggest there was anything wrong with not liking Apple products, but plenty of people who are all too ready to explain why those who do like them are wrong to do so.
If I dispute one single point in a post, that should not be taken as an indication that I agree/disagree with any other point made by that poster or anyone else in the thread. Or anywhere else. Ever.
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#63 User is offline   crosswordbob 

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Posted 26 April 2012 - 06:26 AM

View PostKLanD, on 26 April 2012 - 06:04 AM, said:

Yes, but in the Apple circle, wanting something Apple doesn't have is akin to blasphemy. Remember if you want a feature that isn't available on an Apple product, then Apple isn't for you. If you want whatever Apple gives you, then Apple is perfect for you.


False.


View PostKLanD, on 26 April 2012 - 06:04 AM, said:

View Postedelbrp, on 25 April 2012 - 07:36 PM, said:

I like this "42n81" guy, he has some sense... *fist bump* :')

Have a good night.


Best joke I've heard all day...

Pathetic.

View PostKLanD, on 26 April 2012 - 06:07 AM, said:

You know, It's amusing how you are willing to admit; you might be wrong, but the Apple crowd are always convinced they are 100% right.

False.
If I dispute one single point in a post, that should not be taken as an indication that I agree/disagree with any other point made by that poster or anyone else in the thread. Or anywhere else. Ever.
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#64 User is offline   HankRearden 

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Posted 26 April 2012 - 08:22 AM

View Postlinuxrants7xpg, on 25 April 2012 - 07:03 PM, said:


No, the value of a product is it's worth as determined by the market, not "what someone is willing to pay for it". If I sell you a dog turd for $1500, it doesn't mean that a dog turd's value is $1500. It just means that you got ripped off. It's also worth noting a "market value" doesn't imply an understanding of "actual value". "Market value" can be influenced by a number of factors not relevant to it's "actual value". A good salesman can sell you a product for a larger amount than a poor salesman. The "actual value" of the product doesn't change.

You should probably try showing up for that Econ class.


No, the value of ANYTHING is what someone is willing to pay you for it. Right now gold is selling above $1,600 an ounce. If for whatever reason the entire country goes into massive depression, I may be able to sell you 5 lbs of rice for 5 ounces of gold, and you'll pay me or starve to death. In that case you have two ways of looking at the situation. You could say rice is worth $8,000 for a 5 lb bag, or you could say gold is worth $1.00 an ounce. In both cases 5 ounces of gold buys 5 lbs of rice.

"Actual Value" is whatever someone is willing to pay. If I own Instagram and I sell it for $1 billion to Facebook, then Instagram is valued at $1bn. Period end of story. If Facebook decides it no longer wants Instagram and sells it to Microsoft and Microsoft is willing to pay $10 million for it, then Instagram is valued at $10 million, unless someone else ups that value by offering more for it.

Actual Value isn't static. It's dynamic. I buy and sell stock almost every day. And I can tell you, the IRS, the market maker, the seller and buyer all agree what the actual value is. It is whatever I have "sold" the stock for. When I sell it plays a huge role in the value. I bought Apple for $431 and sold it for $595. The value at the time of the sale was $595. Today the value is $604. Three days ago the value was $540. As you can easily see, the value changes dynamically based on market conditions.

What someone is willing to pay for something, IS THE MARKET. The market is made up if willing buyers, selling, market makers, speculators and so on. That is what defines "The Market". It is simply the existence of willing parties to exchange. Perhaps it is you who should take an econ course. An Austrian one as American's insistence of keeping to Keynesian economics is all wrong.
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#65 User is offline   KLanD 

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Posted 26 April 2012 - 08:36 AM

View Postcrosswordbob, on 26 April 2012 - 06:24 AM, said:

View PostKLanD, on 26 April 2012 - 06:13 AM, said:

Never said the others were deluded, just trying to point out that not everyone fawns over Apple's products and that should be ok.

Really? I could've sworn you "totally agreed" with LR's theory that Steve Jobs' great skill was convincing people they were innovating when they were in fact not. Would that not mean the millions who think otherwise aare delusional?

There are very few people here who would suggest there was anything wrong with not liking Apple products, but plenty of people who are all too ready to explain why those who do like them are wrong to do so.


No, I agreed with LR on Steve being a great salesman.
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#66 User is offline   KLanD 

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Posted 26 April 2012 - 08:41 AM

View Postcrosswordbob, on 26 April 2012 - 06:26 AM, said:

View PostKLanD, on 26 April 2012 - 06:04 AM, said:

Yes, but in the Apple circle, wanting something Apple doesn't have is akin to blasphemy. Remember if you want a feature that isn't available on an Apple product, then Apple isn't for you. If you want whatever Apple gives you, then Apple is perfect for you.


False.


View PostKLanD, on 26 April 2012 - 06:04 AM, said:

View Postedelbrp, on 25 April 2012 - 07:36 PM, said:

I like this "42n81" guy, he has some sense... *fist bump* :')

Have a good night.


Best joke I've heard all day...

Pathetic.

View PostKLanD, on 26 April 2012 - 06:07 AM, said:

You know, It's amusing how you are willing to admit; you might be wrong, but the Apple crowd are always convinced they are 100% right.

False.


Really?

Well, then. I want Flash and a larger screen on my iPhone.

Possibly, but it was funny.

Ok, I exaggerated a little, I should have said, there are a FEW in the Apple crowd..
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#67 User is offline   HankRearden 

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Posted 26 April 2012 - 08:53 AM

View Postlinuxrants7xpg, on 25 April 2012 - 05:16 PM, said:


I disagree. All you have to do is maintain an adequate product (it doesn't even have to be good) as well as a continuing sales pitch telling you how great the product is. People are already roped into the product because they were convinced it was great to start out with, and they've now invested in the platform. As long as they don't have something change their mind such as an extremely bad release, or a competing product that absolutely dwarfs it (a product only marginally better won't due), people will continue to believe the pitch. All that depends on whether you believe the pitch given to you by the salesman of course. Trouble with that is, if the salesman isn't good, you're in a whole lotta trouble.


I honestly can't believe what I'm reading here from you Linux. Seriously, you have such the clouded view. There is a reason Apple beat Blackberry in sales and profit. People aren't as dumb as you're making them out to be. Compare a blackberry to an iPhone today. I have a Blackberry Curve sitting right here on my desk next to my iPhone 4S. Let's compare if you like. The reality is the iPhone is far more dynamic. Apps install much more easily. It's by far faster, more elegant, better able to deal with today's social media even though the Blackberry has Facebook, Twitter and Foursquare all are no where near the quality, speed and fluidity of the iPhone apps.

The iPhone is winning customers because customers can easily see the better product. What is better? That's up to the individual. And last quarter, 35.1 million people decided the iPhone was best. That blows away the sales of the Blackberry. It completely obliterates the Windows 7 sales. Right now, the people have decided that Android of various flavors and the iPhone are the top of what they expect and desire out of their smart phone.

If customers didn't agree with that, sales would drop off sharply. Blackberry used to be known as Crackberry because those that owned them, myself included, couldn't live without them. I used to pay in excess of $200 a month to own my Blackberry with BES and a subscription to hosted Exchange. Now I can go to Virgin Mobile and buy a Blackberry curve for $99 and pay them $35 a month to have 300 minutes, unlimited data and text for the Blackberry. The MARKET has set the price for Blackberry very low. The supply is there, but the demand is not. Thus the price goes lower. And now RIMM looks to be circling the drain.

Blackberry is full of good features. Yet it is failing. With BES I can see my exchange email instantly. I have an indicator light telling me I have a message. I don't on my iPhone. You have the Blackberry holster, which is a lot like a smart cover and RIM was first with it years and years ago. RIM has sync with tasks, notes, right now today. With all of these great features why is RIM failing? According to you just maintaining an adequate phone, not even a good phone along with a good sales pitch is all that is needed. Why then is RIM dying?

The reason they are dying is their product "was" good. It's time is passing. What the market expects from a smart phone is vastly different from when the Crackberry was king. RIM has not evolved well. It's the same reason Microsoft has completely dropped their old phone design in favor of the more ZUNE like product. They also had adequate products and sales pitches. They are after all number one in the enterprise space, certainly if anyone can sell a Microsoft phone it would be Microsoft. Yet it isn't happening now is it?

I realize you can't stand Apple, but you've let it completely cloud your thinking. I have completely switched from Android. Yet I will give Android props. It's just not for me. I use a Mac, and yet I continue to try Linux over and over again. I like what that community is doing. I still own Windows machines and I still use them often. I just happen to prefer to carry a MacBook Air. It's light, and I can open my client's InDesign files, make edits, use Suitcase Fusion 4 to manage fonts, and basically get the job done well.

When I get into the office, I have a BOSE BlueTooth SoundLink, that works with BlueTooth. As soon as my iPhone gets near it, sound transfers from my headphones to the speaker. No WiFi needed. In other words, I buy what works the way I want to work. It's quite likely why everyone else buys what they buy. I wouldn't want to work with products that made my life horrible.

Another example. I'm on my 5th athletic watch. The Garmin Forerunner 210. I used to use Nike+, then various GPS apps, then some other gizmo I forget what's it called, then an IronMan and now a Garmin. And I finally found a product that covers all the bases I need in one product that works easily enough that it's not a pain. All those other providers made some money from me. But they don't anymore. And they won't in the future. Garmin will win my future business. Lot's of companies can make a little money for a while, but that consistently make money do so because they go beyond the mere promise of doing what they say. They actually deliver. And when you see a company growing well past the S&P500 for years in a row, you can take it to the bank that only a company that truly gets it will accomplish such a feat. There is a reason Apple went from $93 a share pre-iPhone to to over $600 a share now. And the earnings multiple is still the same as it was when it was $93 a share. Apple is simply earning more money per quarter now. Last quarter being over $40 billion. In fact, it wasn't so long ago that Apple was hoping to have revenue for a year in the $10 billion range. Now they make more than $10 billion in profit alone and in a single quarter. You don't get to $110 billion in cash and short term investments by being just an adequate company.
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#68 User is offline   crosswordbob 

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Posted 26 April 2012 - 09:00 AM

View PostKLanD, on 26 April 2012 - 08:36 AM, said:

View Postcrosswordbob, on 26 April 2012 - 06:24 AM, said:

View PostKLanD, on 26 April 2012 - 06:13 AM, said:

Never said the others were deluded, just trying to point out that not everyone fawns over Apple's products and that should be ok.

Really? I could've sworn you "totally agreed" with LR's theory that Steve Jobs' great skill was convincing people they were innovating when they were in fact not. Would that not mean the millions who think otherwise aare delusional?

There are very few people here who would suggest there was anything wrong with not liking Apple products, but plenty of people who are all too ready to explain why those who do like them are wrong to do so.


No, I agreed with LR on Steve being a great salesman.

Ah—I made the mistake of thinking that the word "totally" in "totally agree" implied that you agreed with the totality of his comment.
If I dispute one single point in a post, that should not be taken as an indication that I agree/disagree with any other point made by that poster or anyone else in the thread. Or anywhere else. Ever.
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#69 User is offline   crosswordbob 

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Posted 26 April 2012 - 09:14 AM

View PostKLanD, on 26 April 2012 - 08:41 AM, said:

Really?

Well, then. I want Flash and a larger screen on my iPhone.


Great. I don't. I would, however, like an optional fine-nibbed stylus, a horizontal docking port and Siri on my iPad. Just not enough to abandon the many things I care more about, including the benefits that come from not trying to offer every possible option. Wanting something Apple doesn't offer is no sin at all—believing that they should offer it is selfish.

KLanD said:

Ok, I exaggerated a little, I should have said, there are a FEW in the Apple crowd..


No more than there are in the anti-Apple crowd. It wasn't the exaggeration I disagreed with, it was the attempt to suggest that the Apple crowd were any more guilty of what you were bemoaning than anyone else.
If I dispute one single point in a post, that should not be taken as an indication that I agree/disagree with any other point made by that poster or anyone else in the thread. Or anywhere else. Ever.
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#70 User is offline   linuxrants7xpg 

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Posted 26 April 2012 - 09:16 AM

View PostHankRearden, on 26 April 2012 - 08:22 AM, said:

No, the value of ANYTHING is what someone is willing to pay you for it.


I'm not going to debate it with you, or frankly, anyone. Look up the Dot-com bubble. It's a prime example of what happens when "market value" and "actual value" don't match up.
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#71 User is offline   linuxrants7xpg 

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Posted 26 April 2012 - 09:18 AM

View PostHankRearden, on 26 April 2012 - 08:53 AM, said:

The iPhone is winning customers because customers can easily see the better product. What is better? That's up to the individual.


Find someone with no technical background who owns an iPhone and ask them why they bought it.
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#72 User is offline   crosswordbob 

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Posted 26 April 2012 - 09:42 AM

View Postlinuxrants7xpg, on 26 April 2012 - 09:18 AM, said:

View PostHankRearden, on 26 April 2012 - 08:53 AM, said:

The iPhone is winning customers because customers can easily see the better product. What is better? That's up to the individual.


Find someone with no technical background who owns an iPhone and ask them why they bought it.


Most, I would imagine, would mention word-of-mouth recommendations, and seeing some of the cool things their friends can do with one. Such recommendations tend to trickle down from more to less techie people, so are primarily driven by people who are from a technical background and have well-informed reasons for selecting their device of choice. It does not materialise out of nothing.

Oh sorry—was I supposed to say "'cos they'll make me look cool!"?
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#73 User is offline   HankRearden 

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Posted 26 April 2012 - 10:54 AM

View Postlinuxrants7xpg, on 26 April 2012 - 09:16 AM, said:

View PostHankRearden, on 26 April 2012 - 08:22 AM, said:

No, the value of ANYTHING is what someone is willing to pay you for it.


I'm not going to debate it with you, or frankly, anyone. Look up the Dot-com bubble. It's a prime example of what happens when "market value" and "actual value" don't match up.


The Dot Com bubble, the recent housing market for CDOs and the depression of 2008 all support what I am saying. The value of PETS.COM was high. Then it wasn't. It is dynamic. The actual value and what someone is willing to pay for something are one in the same. Just like a 5 pound bag a rice can be worth $8,000 if you're hungry enough. It is absolutely supply and demand at work. The dot com bubble was caused by excessive demand to be first to market in an explosive new business venture. Demand is high, supply limited, price goes up. Few if any made any real money and reality set in and so demand dropped, supply didn't matter and price went to zero. The price was zero because no one was willing to pay anything for the company. NOKIA could sell zero phones tomorrow and still be worth maybe $10 billion just for their patent portfolio. Value is whatever someone is willing to pay. Debate it or not, that's the truth, and if you bothered to talk to any serious economists they wil tell you the same thing.
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#74 User is offline   HankRearden 

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Posted 26 April 2012 - 11:01 AM

View Postlinuxrants7xpg, on 26 April 2012 - 09:18 AM, said:

View PostHankRearden, on 26 April 2012 - 08:53 AM, said:

The iPhone is winning customers because customers can easily see the better product. What is better? That's up to the individual.


Find someone with no technical background who owns an iPhone and ask them why they bought it.


It doesn't matter why they bought it. What matters is that they buy it over and over again. Meaning the purchase is correct. Look at my example with the athletic watch. I own 5 and I'm not technical. But I can tell you I didn't like the IronMan and I do like the Forerunner. I can tell you I prefer using the Forerunner 210 to the iPhone with an exercise app. In fact, I paid $200 for the watch and another $100 for a Garmin heart rate chest monitor and foot pod to measure stride. That $300 watch is the price of many smart phones and it doesn't make calls. So you can say your phone does more than my watch, why pay $300 for the watch? Because the watch is more correct for the task I have at hand. It's extremely light. It does one thing really well. What matters to you, technical, has nothing to do with what makes me or someone else buy a particular product. That's the mistake you keep making. You judge the product by your own values and you seem to think what matters to you matters to everyone else. It doesn't. I like the iPhone much better than the Android, and having owned both I can easily say why I feel that way. Yet my friend, friend x, will see the same two devices and choose the Android, hands down every time. The correct conclusion is, what matters to me doesn't necessarily matter to you.

The correct way to view this is desire and demand. Apple selling 35 million phones this quarter means they are desired and there is demand. It is truly that simple.
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#75 User is offline   Nuke61 

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Posted 26 April 2012 - 11:13 AM

View Postlinuxrants7xpg, on 25 April 2012 - 08:29 PM, said:

I disagree, but I didn't comment just so I could discuss Econ 101 with people who obviously don't understand it (this is not about you Nuke61). We won't know either way for a couple more years. We'll just have to wait and see.

What part do you disagree with? You said they only need to have adequate products, which then need to be marketed well. Do you think that Apple don't have products that are even adequate? If it's the advertisement part, since when does a CEO make advertisements that gets seen by the masses? In other words, do you really think the tens of millions of people who have and continue to buy iPods, iPhones and iPads did so based on Steve Jobs' marketing savvy? When would they have been exposed to it?
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#76 User is offline   HankRearden 

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Posted 26 April 2012 - 11:14 AM

View Postcrosswordbob, on 26 April 2012 - 09:42 AM, said:

View Postlinuxrants7xpg, on 26 April 2012 - 09:18 AM, said:

View PostHankRearden, on 26 April 2012 - 08:53 AM, said:

The iPhone is winning customers because customers can easily see the better product. What is better? That's up to the individual.


Find someone with no technical background who owns an iPhone and ask them why they bought it.


Most, I would imagine, would mention word-of-mouth recommendations, and seeing some of the cool things their friends can do with one. Such recommendations tend to trickle down from more to less techie people, so are primarily driven by people who are from a technical background and have well-informed reasons for selecting their device of choice. It does not materialise out of nothing.

Oh sorry—was I supposed to say "'cos they'll make me look cool!"?


I can say this. I'm not technical. Yet I choose the iPhone over the Android because I feel, and still feel, that the quality of the software is superior. That's no fact, it's my opinion. I like the integration with all the media I consumer, Podcasts, Music, Audible Books, regular books, all under one roof. I'm really happy with iCloud so far. Google Music is worthless in my opinion. I love that the app I like on the iPhone almost always had a true iPad version. And there is much more.

Apple in my opinion does a good job of creating a product, giving a good explanation of what it is and what it can do for you, and how it works. And I hate to sound like everyone else, but it just works. I don't have time to be technical all the time. There is a time when I want to explore and there are times when I just want things to work. Like when I hear a company missed their revenue target. All I want is my stock app to load up and I want to sell my shares. Nothing else matters.

I love LOVE L O V E dropbox. It's not an Apple product. It's just works. No more caring around stupid USB thumb drives. When I see a product that solves a problem I have, I'm a happy guy.

If someone bought an iPhone just because someone else did, it wouldn't last. The monthly bills would hurt. Why buy the latest one? They're not just buying it cause someone else did. Perhaps that got them started. What keeps them interested are well crafted products that improve the quality of their life. However it does that doesn't matter. What matters is that they like it enough to keep coming back for more.
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#77 User is offline   linuxrants7xpg 

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Posted 26 April 2012 - 11:20 AM

View PostHankRearden, on 26 April 2012 - 11:01 AM, said:

It doesn't matter why they bought it. What matters is that they buy it over and over again. Meaning the purchase is correct.


It absolutely matters why they bought it. Whether they keep buying it is just a hold-over. Most non-technical people perform only basic tasks on a phone. Android, iOS, Blackberry, they can all perform those tasks equally well. You can't tell me that iOS is just so much better at updating Facebook than Android is. It's ridiculous. Then the question is, what drew them to a particular phone in the first place.

View PostHankRearden, on 26 April 2012 - 11:01 AM, said:

What matters to you, technical, has nothing to do with what makes me or someone else buy a particular product. That's the mistake you keep making. You judge the product by your own values and you seem to think what matters to you matters to everyone else. It doesn't.


Right, because that's why I suggested you ask a non-technical individual why they bought their iPhone. Did you even read what I wrote? I've worked with non-technical people for pretty much the entirety of my career, and I'm more than aware what they're looking for is not what I'm looking for. What I want to you hear is why someone chose an iPhone, and have that someone be an individual who doesn't know what a MHz is or how many MPs their camera has or care about a phone's ecosystem (did you know that last year it was found that 50% of iPhone users didn't even sync their phones?). Why does that matter? Because there's a lot more of those people there than there are of those technology types.
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#78 User is offline   Nuke61 

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Posted 26 April 2012 - 11:20 AM

View PostKLanD, on 26 April 2012 - 06:04 AM, said:

Yes, but in the Apple circle, wanting something Apple doesn't have is akin to blasphemy. Remember if you want a feature that isn't available on an Apple product, then Apple isn't for you. If you want whatever Apple gives you, then Apple is perfect for you.

That's no different than most products - have Samsung asked you what you want in a phone? Or LG? Or Microsoft? The only difference is that instead of producing lots of SKUs, Apple tend to limit theirs.
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#79 User is offline   linuxrants7xpg 

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Posted 26 April 2012 - 11:22 AM

View PostNuke61, on 26 April 2012 - 11:13 AM, said:

View Postlinuxrants7xpg, on 25 April 2012 - 08:29 PM, said:

I disagree, but I didn't comment just so I could discuss Econ 101 with people who obviously don't understand it (this is not about you Nuke61). We won't know either way for a couple more years. We'll just have to wait and see.

What part do you disagree with? You said they only need to have adequate products, which then need to be marketed well. Do you think that Apple don't have products that are even adequate? If it's the advertisement part, since when does a CEO make advertisements that gets seen by the masses? In other words, do you really think the tens of millions of people who have and continue to buy iPods, iPhones and iPads did so based on Steve Jobs' marketing savvy? When would they have been exposed to it?


This part: "The sales pitch wasn't made or broken by Jobs, and it won't be made or broken by Cook."
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#80 User is offline   Nuke61 

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Posted 26 April 2012 - 11:30 AM

View Postlinuxrants7xpg, on 26 April 2012 - 11:20 AM, said:

It absolutely matters why they bought it. Whether they keep buying it is just a hold-over. Most non-technical people perform only basic tasks on a phone. Android, iOS, Blackberry, they can all perform those tasks equally well. You can't tell me that iOS is just so much better at updating Facebook than Android is. It's ridiculous. Then the question is, what drew them to a particular phone in the first place.

Why do you suppose that Apple has the highest customer satisfaction rates year after year after year? I think it's because they make very good products that are easy to use, and work well together. But even if you think it's almost entirely or even purely marketing and advertising driven, what is going to change about that process due to Jobs's death?
2.93GHz i7 w/12 gigs, 27" IPS @2560x1440 and 23 IPS @1920x1080 fed by an ATI HD 5750
stock Droid Incredible 2
supercharged Z06 Corvette, now with 608 RWHP<evil laugh>
other toys :-)
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