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Apple Is Headed For A Fall, Says Forrester Ceo

#81 User is offline   Nuke61 

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Posted 26 April 2012 - 11:32 AM

View Postlinuxrants7xpg, on 26 April 2012 - 11:22 AM, said:

View PostNuke61, on 26 April 2012 - 11:13 AM, said:

View Postlinuxrants7xpg, on 25 April 2012 - 08:29 PM, said:

I disagree, but I didn't comment just so I could discuss Econ 101 with people who obviously don't understand it (this is not about you Nuke61). We won't know either way for a couple more years. We'll just have to wait and see.

What part do you disagree with? You said they only need to have adequate products, which then need to be marketed well. Do you think that Apple don't have products that are even adequate? If it's the advertisement part, since when does a CEO make advertisements that gets seen by the masses? In other words, do you really think the tens of millions of people who have and continue to buy iPods, iPhones and iPads did so based on Steve Jobs' marketing savvy? When would they have been exposed to it?
This part: "The sales pitch wasn't made or broken by Jobs, and it won't be made or broken by Cook."

So you think those tens of millions of people bought iPods, iPhones and iPads based on what Steve Jobs said? Where would they have heard it? The sales pitch, the advertisement, is what the millions see on TV -- and it doesn't have the CEO in it.
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#82 User is offline   linuxrants7xpg 

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Posted 26 April 2012 - 11:38 AM

View PostNuke61, on 26 April 2012 - 11:30 AM, said:

Why do you suppose that Apple has the highest customer satisfaction rates year after year after year? I think it's because they make very good products that are easy to use, and work well together. But even if you think it's almost entirely or even purely marketing and advertising driven, what is going to change about that process due to Jobs's death?


Maintainability. Jobs may have left a string of projects to be completed after his departure, but that string isn't infinitely long. Someday (and relatively soon I expect), Apple is going to have to starting conceiving of projects and selling those projects to the general public without Jobs's input and personal image.

Just because you make "very good products" doesn't mean you'll continue to do so, or that those products will be still considered "good" if they don't evolve. Take Windows 95 or Mac OS 7. In 1995, they were great OSs. If someone tried to sell you a computer today running either, you wouldn't touch it. People think that iOS or OSX is great today. What is Apple going to do in the next 5 years that keeps it "great"? Can it evolve without Jobs? I don't think it can.
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#83 User is offline   linuxrants7xpg 

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Posted 26 April 2012 - 11:42 AM

View PostNuke61, on 26 April 2012 - 11:32 AM, said:

So you think those tens of millions of people bought iPods, iPhones and iPads based on what Steve Jobs said? Where would they have heard it? The sales pitch, the advertisement, is what the millions see on TV -- and it doesn't have the CEO in it.


I think that tens of millions of people bought products that Steve Jobs approved and were promoted with sales campaigns that Steve Jobs approved. I can't be certain that Apple won't just keep making money hand over fist with products that people line up for days to buy. No one can without a time machine, but it's my belief that Apple can not continue on it's current vector without Jobs's input. If you disagree with that, that's fine. I can't prove anything either way. We'll have to wait and see.
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#84 User is offline   QUADICON 

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  Posted 26 April 2012 - 11:50 AM

I don't quite agree with you. Tho I don't like Jobs or Cook, I will take the one who is the lesser of the 2 evils; which is Cook.

As far as Apple going downhill because they don't have Jobs? That's left to be seen. However, if APple can't come up with something better than iPhone and iPad and they sit on them to long, they will meet the same fate as Microsoft and RIM have in the mobile space. They will allow the new kids to run them down towards the bottom.

It is not hard to believe that a decade ago, both Microsoft and RIm were the top dogs with nakes like Palm and others being there as well. Look now and even tho the game is the same, the players are not. If Apple isn't careful, they could be coming from behind yet again.

You can only beat a dead horse for so long.
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#85 User is offline   Nuke61 

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Posted 26 April 2012 - 12:04 PM

View Postlinuxrants7xpg, on 26 April 2012 - 11:42 AM, said:

No one can without a time machine, but it's my belief that Apple can not continue on it's current vector without Jobs's input. If you disagree with that, that's fine. I can't prove anything either way. We'll have to wait and see.

Ahh... well I don't think Apple could have continued on its current vector even if Jobs were still alive. Apple is a huge company that has stock market performance that looks like that of a well performing startup. I think Apple is headed for a flattening of its stock performance, and it would have happened even with Jobs.

What I disagree with is the position of the article, which is that they are headed for a fall, similar to what happened with Sony. Saying that they cannot continue their current vector is very different than saying they are headed for a fall, and that's the article premise that I thought you agreed with.
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#86 User is offline   42n81 

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Posted 26 April 2012 - 12:07 PM

View PostKLanD, on 26 April 2012 - 06:11 AM, said:

View Postnonseq, on 26 April 2012 - 05:17 AM, said:

View Postedelbrp, on 25 April 2012 - 08:46 PM, said:

View Postlinuxrants7xpg, on 25 April 2012 - 08:39 PM, said:

Tried that.


OK, take care, I enjoyed the debate.

Have a good night, OK? :')


In United States tax law, the definition of fair market value is found in the United States Supreme Court decision in the Cartwright case:

The fair market value is the price at which the property would change hands between a willing buyer and a willing seller, neither being under any compulsion to buy or to sell and both having reasonable knowledge of relevant facts. United States v. Cartwright, 411 U. S. 546, 93 S. Ct. 1713, 1716-17, 36 L. Ed. 2d 528, 73-1 U.S. Tax Cas. (CCH) ¶ 12,926 (1973) (quoting from U.S. Treasury regulations relating to Federal estate taxes, at 26 C.F.R. sec. 20.2031-1).



Wow, so I can legally screw people? Cause by that quote, if I charge %200 more than the actual value of the product as long as some sucker is willing to buy it, it's the "fair market value".

Good to know.

Hallelujah! You finally understand that very basic principle and cornerstone of capitalism!

Now go out and make a fortune.
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#87 User is offline   HankRearden 

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Posted 26 April 2012 - 12:16 PM

View Postlinuxrants7xpg, on 26 April 2012 - 11:20 AM, said:

View PostHankRearden, on 26 April 2012 - 11:01 AM, said:

It doesn't matter why they bought it. What matters is that they buy it over and over again. Meaning the purchase is correct.


It absolutely matters why they bought it. Whether they keep buying it is just a hold-over. Most non-technical people perform only basic tasks on a phone. Android, iOS, Blackberry, they can all perform those tasks equally well. You can't tell me that iOS is just so much better at updating Facebook than Android is. It's ridiculous. Then the question is, what drew them to a particular phone in the first place.

View PostHankRearden, on 26 April 2012 - 11:01 AM, said:

What matters to you, technical, has nothing to do with what makes me or someone else buy a particular product. That's the mistake you keep making. You judge the product by your own values and you seem to think what matters to you matters to everyone else. It doesn't.


Right, because that's why I suggested you ask a non-technical individual why they bought their iPhone. Did you even read what I wrote? I've worked with non-technical people for pretty much the entirety of my career, and I'm more than aware what they're looking for is not what I'm looking for. What I want to you hear is why someone chose an iPhone, and have that someone be an individual who doesn't know what a MHz is or how many MPs their camera has or care about a phone's ecosystem (did you know that last year it was found that 50% of iPhone users didn't even sync their phones?). Why does that matter? Because there's a lot more of those people there than there are of those technology types.


Sorry Linux. I really don't know why people buy the products they buy. Their friends showed them theirs perhaps? They saw one in the store and liked it for the way it looks? I truly don't know. I can easily agree that perhaps most don't even sync it at all. What ever the reason is, they are buying them in droves. And it's been going on now for roughly 5 years straight if I'm not mistaken. My opinion is that you don't keep growing for 5 years just because your friend bought one. I would venture some sales are exactly for that reason. My friend had an Android and so I was able to get the $10 tour of Android and that led me to buy the Android. But then I took a look at the iPhone and ended up going that route. So friend did have an influence but ultimately I ended up going my own way.

My friend and I don't see the same things as being important. So he has some influence certainly, but in the end I make up my own mind. And I think that goes for a great many things. Your friend might have a Honda and really love it. And you've been inside it many times. And that means something, of course. But I think in the end people tend to buy what they want to buy. If friends showed them their phone and explained why they like it, the person being showed the phone still has to see value in it. Friends show me things all the time. Tell me about movies they like and such. I hear what they say, but I don't always agree. In the end I tend to go to the store and play around with the device as much as I can before deciding on it.

This would be a good survey type question to get a better grip on the issue.
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#88 User is offline   42n81 

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Posted 26 April 2012 - 12:24 PM

View PostKLanD, on 26 April 2012 - 05:25 AM, said:

View Postedelbrp, on 25 April 2012 - 03:40 PM, said:

Apple's simply too large to be so dependent on a single personality. Reading most of Jobs' biography, it was pretty clear he wasn't an innovator, per se, but rather a whip cracking manager. I'm not saying he wasn't a significant influence, but he wasn't magical and there are other managers.


I've always said this. Everyone gives Jobs all the credit and forget all the people who actually designed, invented and innovated ideas to make the products a reality.

It's one thing to say, 'I want a red car that goes fast', it's another to actually design and build it.

Excellent point. All those people Jobs brought together are still there.

Jobs' legacy is that he assembled the core and brought it to critical mass. The challenge for Tim Cook and his entourage is to manage the chain reaction. I'm confident that they are entirely capable of doing so for quite some time.

This post has been edited by 42n81: 26 April 2012 - 12:25 PM

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#89 User is offline   linuxrants7xpg 

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Posted 26 April 2012 - 12:33 PM

View PostHankRearden, on 26 April 2012 - 12:16 PM, said:

Sorry Linux. I really don't know why people buy the products they buy. Their friends showed them theirs perhaps? They saw one in the store and liked it for the way it looks? I truly don't know.


Not intended to be snarky, but that's why I suggested you ask someone.
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#90 User is offline   42n81 

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Posted 26 April 2012 - 12:36 PM

View PostKLanD, on 26 April 2012 - 06:04 AM, said:

View PostNuke61, on 25 April 2012 - 08:24 PM, said:

View Postlinuxrants7xpg, on 25 April 2012 - 05:16 PM, said:

I disagree. All you have to do is maintain an adequate product (it doesn't even have to be good) as well as a continuing sales pitch telling you how great the product is. People are already roped into the product because they were convinced it was great to start out with, and they've now invested in the platform. As long as they don't have something change their mind such as an extremely bad release, or a competing product that absolutely dwarfs it (a product only marginally better won't due), people will continue to believe the pitch. All that depends on whether you believe the pitch given to you by the salesman of course. Trouble with that is, if the salesman isn't good, you're in a whole lotta trouble.

If all Apple has to do is produce an adequate product and have a good sales pitch, then Apple shoul be set for the foreseeable future. The iPhone and iPad are arguably among the top products in their categories. The latest iPad was just released and it is clearly among the best tablets available, maybe not the best, depending on your specific needs, but certainly in one of the top spots. All the iPhone is missing is 4G and maybe a slightly larger size. The sales pitch wasn't made or broken by Jobs, and it won't be made or broken by Cook. The sales pitch is made on TV by the same marketing firm that sold the public the current iPhone and doesn't rely on who is sitting at the CEO's desk.


Yes, but in the Apple circle, wanting something Apple doesn't have is akin to blasphemy.

Interesting. Where can find this "Apple circle"? Is it like a crop circle? Do I need to fly over it in a plane to observe it?

I read quite a bit about Apple from the financial, business and enthusiast perspective yet I haven't come across any mention of the blasphemy you mention or anything like it.

Quote

Remember if you want a feature that isn't available on an Apple product, then Apple isn't for you. If you want whatever Apple gives you, then Apple is perfect for you.

Wow. That's your second epiphany today!

You really ARE starting to understand. Keep it up. You're doing great!
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#91 User is offline   HankRearden 

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Posted 26 April 2012 - 12:56 PM

View Postlinuxrants7xpg, on 26 April 2012 - 12:33 PM, said:

View PostHankRearden, on 26 April 2012 - 12:16 PM, said:

Sorry Linux. I really don't know why people buy the products they buy. Their friends showed them theirs perhaps? They saw one in the store and liked it for the way it looks? I truly don't know.


Not intended to be snarky, but that's why I suggested you ask someone.


Well, I do have a warehouse full of people who have smart phones. I'll ask. And I'll give you an honest reply when I have their answers. I'm curious. So to be continued.
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#92 User is offline   crosswordbob 

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Posted 26 April 2012 - 12:58 PM

View PostQUADICON, on 26 April 2012 - 11:50 AM, said:

You can only beat a dead horse for so long.

This is true, but based on Apple's recent figures, the horse ain't even poorly yet.
If I dispute one single point in a post, that should not be taken as an indication that I agree/disagree with any other point made by that poster or anyone else in the thread. Or anywhere else. Ever.
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#93 User is offline   42n81 

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Posted 26 April 2012 - 01:11 PM

View Postcrosswordbob, on 26 April 2012 - 12:58 PM, said:

View PostQUADICON, on 26 April 2012 - 11:50 AM, said:

You can only beat a dead horse for so long.

This is true, but based on Apple's recent figures, the horse ain't even poorly yet.

... and, if I might add, nobody has even come CLOSE to Apple's horse yet, let alone beat it.

This post has been edited by 42n81: 26 April 2012 - 01:11 PM

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#94 User is offline   waldojim 

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Posted 26 April 2012 - 01:32 PM

I wasn't going to get involved in this debate - and probably shouldn't still...

As a long tim user of smartphones (before they were the in thing), I have come to have different expectations out of them from one generation to the next. First it was "can it hit up the internet, and perform basic tasks?" That answer was yes. Then it was "can I watch movies on it?" That was answered with the Omnia - YES! Then it was FLAC audio, games and eventually Netflix. When asked if it could do more mundane tasks, like playing music, I said sure it can, and brought up the media player of the week and played back a song or two.

It wasn't until last night that I finally thought about everything it does, and doesn't do, put that in relationship to what I really use and don't, and then thought about how easy it was to do those things. I found myself with a problem. My HTC Incredible 2 makes life HARD to do simple things. Sync Music? Sure it can, into non-standard folders that seemingly have no rhyme or reason. Play music? Sure, I can select ONE SONG at a time. OR use a 3rd party application (like Winamp) to achieve a half-assed solution. Where is the media focus? Where is the iTunes killer? Then I thought about the applications I have that are easy to use: N64oid, Gamboid, robo defense, and netflix. Netflix leaves a LOT to be desired. Crackle, Slacker, and i Heart Radio are all crap. They are either a pain to use, or have so many ads throughout them that they are near useless. Shoot even the marketplace "Google Play Store" now, has gotten to be a PITA to use.

Unless something drastic changes, in December, I am buying a freaking iPhone. WHY? To get polished apps, get away from advertising, and have a true media phone.

Android has the ability. Google has the ability even to make Android kick ass here. They are choosing not to.
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#95 User is offline   artzy65 

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Posted 26 April 2012 - 02:02 PM

View PostKLanD, on 26 April 2012 - 05:20 AM, said:

Actually, I think Apple will be just fine.

It's the cult of Apple that I think will slowly dwindle.

Apple's status now destroys any notion of 'cult'. I actually miss those 'us-against-the-world' days, before iThis and iThat.

This post has been edited by artzy65: 26 April 2012 - 02:09 PM

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#96 User is offline   artzy65 

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Posted 26 April 2012 - 02:06 PM

View Post42n81, on 26 April 2012 - 01:11 PM, said:

View Postcrosswordbob, on 26 April 2012 - 12:58 PM, said:

View PostQUADICON, on 26 April 2012 - 11:50 AM, said:

You can only beat a dead horse for so long.

This is true, but based on Apple's recent figures, the horse ain't even poorly yet.

... and, if I might add, nobody has even come CLOSE to Apple's horse yet, let alone beat it.

Yep, it'll be quite a spell before that there dog don't hunt, I reckon.
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#97 User is offline   nonseq 

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Posted 26 April 2012 - 02:10 PM

View Postartzy65, on 26 April 2012 - 02:02 PM, said:

View PostKLanD, on 26 April 2012 - 05:20 AM, said:

Actually, I think Apple will be just fine.

It's the cult of Apple that I think will slowly dwindle.

Apple's status now destroys any notion of 'cult'. I actually miss those days, before iThis and iThat.

The cult of Apple dwindled in a big way in the mid-nineties, got even smaller with OSX, and pretty much died on the vine when Macs moved to the x86 platform. It seems to me that the rumors of the cult of Apple have mostly been perpetuated by Apple detractors with comments about the company, Steve Jobs, and calling Apple users 'sheeple" At least that's my story, and I'm sticking with it.
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#98 User is offline   HankRearden 

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Posted 26 April 2012 - 02:15 PM

View Postwaldojim, on 26 April 2012 - 01:32 PM, said:

I wasn't going to get involved in this debate - and probably shouldn't still...

As a long tim user of smartphones (before they were the in thing), I have come to have different expectations out of them from one generation to the next. First it was "can it hit up the internet, and perform basic tasks?" That answer was yes. Then it was "can I watch movies on it?" That was answered with the Omnia - YES! Then it was FLAC audio, games and eventually Netflix. When asked if it could do more mundane tasks, like playing music, I said sure it can, and brought up the media player of the week and played back a song or two.

It wasn't until last night that I finally thought about everything it does, and doesn't do, put that in relationship to what I really use and don't, and then thought about how easy it was to do those things. I found myself with a problem. My HTC Incredible 2 makes life HARD to do simple things. Sync Music? Sure it can, into non-standard folders that seemingly have no rhyme or reason. Play music? Sure, I can select ONE SONG at a time. OR use a 3rd party application (like Winamp) to achieve a half-assed solution. Where is the media focus? Where is the iTunes killer? Then I thought about the applications I have that are easy to use: N64oid, Gamboid, robo defense, and netflix. Netflix leaves a LOT to be desired. Crackle, Slacker, and i Heart Radio are all crap. They are either a pain to use, or have so many ads throughout them that they are near useless. Shoot even the marketplace "Google Play Store" now, has gotten to be a PITA to use.

Unless something drastic changes, in December, I am buying a freaking iPhone. WHY? To get polished apps, get away from advertising, and have a true media phone.

Android has the ability. Google has the ability even to make Android kick ass here. They are choosing not to.


Sounds like you're running into what I ran into. The iPhone just works. And with iCloud, the music sync thing is an absolute no-brainer. You buy a track on your iPhone, and it downloads to iTunes and your iPad if you have those devices. Buy a song in iTunes on your computer, and put it in a particular playlist, and that echoes across your other devices in real time. Read a book on your iPhone, open your iPad and the where you left off it right there. No syncing required. It just does it. All the media under one roof. One app, which is iTunes. I travel a LOT and I always have iBooks and Audible books waiting to be read or listened to. My Podcasts are always updating. I have plenty of media to keep me interested.

And the iPad... I could go on forever about how awesome the iPad 3 is. And this coming from a guy who owns two Android tabs, both of which sit in the closet. I bought the iPad 2 just to check it out. And ended up really liking what I saw. I expected Android to win once I experienced the iPad. Polish is exactly what you get. Each app feels like someone's masterpiece. Nothing is half baked. It's rare that I see a low quality app, but they are out there.

Now that I got used to super high res screen on the iPad 3, everything else is looking dated to me.
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#99 User is offline   crosswordbob 

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Posted 26 April 2012 - 02:37 PM

View Postartzy65, on 26 April 2012 - 02:02 PM, said:

View PostKLanD, on 26 April 2012 - 05:20 AM, said:

Actually, I think Apple will be just fine.

It's the cult of Apple that I think will slowly dwindle.

Apple's status now destroys any notion of 'cult'. I actually miss those 'us-against-the-world' days, before iThis and iThat.

Very true, actually. Another article talks about around a third of new iPhone/iPad sales being to people who have never bought Apple before. I don't think you can hold onto "cult" status with that sort of growth.
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#100 User is offline   Bansaku 

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  Posted 26 April 2012 - 02:40 PM

Wow, it seems that we have a new Champion of Mr. I think I know it all but don't have a clue; Mr Colony! No surprising that PC World posts such dribble. Sigh, nothing more than click-bait.
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