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Yeah. We'll see if any buyer's remorse kicks in for monday.

"If you can get your hands on the 'hot new stock', you probably don't want it." Someone said that was a saying, somewhere, but I don't know who said it.

I finally found a realtime ranking updated enough to include Facebook, and for yesterday (5/18/2012), FB ranked 119th of all companies in market capitalization.
http://ycharts.com/rankings/market_cap

I like to see what the market things is worth LESS than Facebook...

Ford Motor Co. is right below it.

It's worth more than Target and Costco, combined.

It's worth more than GM, Time Warner and Texas Instruments... combined.

I think the market is over-valuing it a bit.

They wanted too high of an earnings multiple for this new company. Still not convinced it has a high enough earnings potential. I'm also not sure they are a leader in their field.

Google is a leader in search. They have been tested over and over again and always maintain their leadership position.

Microsoft is a leader in the business software and enterprise solutions. Both doing well. A virtual cash register that brings in billions in profits every quarter like clockwork.

Intel is also a leader in their field. AMD isn't a tenth of what Intel is. And they rarely stray far from their leadership position.

I like companies that are leaders in their field. What happened to AOL and MySpace might also happen to Facebook. They need ways of locking you in. And so far they have been building that lock-in out fairly well. Many of my apps, news readers, etc offer to share on Facebook. That makes Facebook more valuable. But that is easily duplicated. My RSS reader can easily allow me to post on Twitter or some yet to be known social network. I see options for Google Plus already. If Facebook were the only ones to have that technique I'd value you them a lot more. But virtually everything Facebook does some other social network can also do. And that worries me.

But then again, it's ranked at $81.74, and they stuck it on the third page among the 30's, somehow. It's actually in the top 100, at around 52. I'm not sure why it's way down there. Maybe all the checks haven't been cashed? I dunno.

Making it worth more than Disney (including various studios, TV networks, etc.)

Worth more than Home Depot, Kraft, Honda, Boeing, and a LOT of very big banks, including Goldman Sachs Group.

I'm not worried: I have absolutely no faith that Facebook is worth what the market capitalization says it is.

A whole lot of people are going to play 'hot potato' with it, come monday.

The first quarter they show a lack of singularly remarkable growth in revenue (i.e. NEXT quarter), there will be another sell-off.

Facebook is going to use their money to buy up everything profitable that they can, that connects in any way to Facebook, and funnel those profits into Facebook profits. When they run out cash for that, their profits will stop growing. Then they'll resort to the ol' ponzie pyramid of money movement to make 'profits' of their cash reserves (stock investors' investments).

But I sincerely believe that their subscriber numbers are cooked (like AOL subscribers, anyone who EVER made an account is counted as a permanent subscriber, whether they are, or just poked around and never signed in again).

And if they cooked the books with that, it seems reasonable to assume they're doing some 'creative math' on other elements of their business.

This post has been edited by Evildave: 19 May 2012 - 01:43 PM

Evildave, on 19 May 2012 - 01:26 PM, said:

I think the market is over-valuing it a lot. I reminds me of the feeding frenzy prior to the bursting of the dot com bubble. That said, it would not surprise me if the next week does not reflect the prognostications of market analysts (the markets' greatest bane, in my opinion). Besides I bailed from the equities market some time ago for personal reasons.

This post has been edited by nonseq: 19 May 2012 - 02:25 PM

"There's No Bottom"
http://www.cnbc.com/id/47505908

The underwriters have bailed. They couldn't hold it up. Down 10% in minutes this morning, and stayed down.

It'll stabilize... eventually.

At it's current price, it's trading 78x earnings. Apple trades at just 13x earnings and their a proven cash register. FB is completely over valued at this level.

Here's what a total investment of ONE billion dollars can buy: Private Space Launches
http://www.businessw...5/D9UTQ9BG0.htm

Ever read up on SpaceX's facilities? Metal and power in one side, space craft out the other. That's 100% pure awesome.

What does $80 billion in investment in Facebook buy? Useless, time-wasting bullcrap.

In related news:

Zuckerberg hurries up and sells a billion dollars worth of stock: http://www.marketwat...ares-2012-05-22

Insiders were tipped off: http://www.cnbc.com/id/47523622

So, as usual, the U.S. stock market separates a lot of small investors from their hard earned money, and transforms it into easy wealth for a few.

And they wonder why nobody wants to invest anymore.

Just an update for a company that actually DOES something. Like launch a half a ton of payload to the space station and dock with it. Of course, the mission is only 1/2 done. It's supposed to be able to return payload, too, rather than burn up on re-entry like the other cargo capsules, so science experiments can be returned for analysis.
http://news.national...station-nation/
http://abcnews.go.co...prise-in-orbit/

Once again, that's a ONE billion dollar, total investment to build that company. Substantially cheaper to build the whole company than ONE space shuttle ($1.7 billion). Or even to launch two of them ($450 million).

In a few years, they expect to be launching PEOPLE into orbit. They're designing these capsules around that assumption.

And you're going to tell me that some rack space on a server farm needs a HUNDRED times as much market capitalization as a company that builds space ships FROM SCRATCH?


Facebook’s stock should trade for $13.80
http://www.marketwat...1380-2012-05-25

40% of Facebook Accounts Probably Created By Spammers
http://www.businessw...it-social-media

Worst IPO in a decade!
http://www.telegraph...n-a-decade.html

Zuckerberg poor tipper
http://www.telegraph...Rome-lunch.html

And of course, the spacex mission is a complete success.
http://www.washingto...Sa5U_story.html

Funny thing, the SpaceX people say they want to establish a history of successful and reliable launches before any IPO.

Unlike Facebook that gets a spike in income and tries to cash in.