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Will Dvd Drives Still Be Around In A Few Decades?

#1 User is offline   PCWorld 

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Posted 07 June 2012 - 06:21 AM

Post your comments for Will DVD Drives Still be Around in a Few Decades? here
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#2 User is offline   rixware 

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  Posted 07 June 2012 - 07:14 AM

I agree with Lincoln.

You can do this little thought experiment: How many formats from 50 years ago are still available today?

The answer is: All of them. You can still buy phonographs, Super8 film projectors, and reel-to-reel tape decks. These were the three primary consumer media formats in 1962. (You can also still get photos from any size film negative, the only available still image media back then. And this is a process which has gotten much easier over time.)

More importantly, you don't have to buy the gear because transfer services are widely available (I own one such company: VideoMakersDirect). In fact, even the obscure formats from the 60s and 70s can still be transferred, provided the media is in good enough shape and you are willing to pay for whatever heroic efforts may be needed. (Ironically, because of the proliferation of formats since the late 80s, more recent media and data formats are more likely to be unsupported than their ancestors.)

So, fifty years from now, your progeny may have to take your discs to a transfer service, but if the media is in reasonably good condition, and they can afford the cost, it's likely that at least some data will be retrievable.

This post has been edited by rixware: 07 June 2012 - 07:17 AM

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#3 User is offline   TheWerewolf 

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  Posted 07 June 2012 - 08:42 AM

I've taken the opposite approach and assumed from the start that any choice I make will probably be gone at some point - or that it will be unreliable.

So, I use hard drives. I have a main set that I leave online attached to a small Atom based server. I have a backup set that's always offline and unplugged. Periodically, about once a month, I sync the backup with the main copy and take them off line again.

As storage gets cheaper, I replace the main drives with new higher capacity ones and then use the old drives for other purposes.

This way, the total storage constantly grows, the files are always on the most current media and I always have a backup.

If tomorrow, some new technology replaces hard drives, once I'm convinced it's permanently here, I'll update to that.
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#4 User is offline   nafhan 

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  Posted 07 June 2012 - 08:51 AM

I think backing up to DVD is a pretty bad idea. Beyond the possibility of future compatibility problems, you've got the possibility of an event that damages your primary storage (PC) also damaging your backup - unless you keep your DVD's offsite. Even physically keeping the DVD's offsite, though, in a catastrophe, you'll be certain to lose at least some of your pictures.

Another problem with DVD's is the number you need. I'd need 16 single layer DVD's to backup my pictures from the last 10 years that I've been doing digital photography. This could be mitigated by using bluray disks.

I think offsite continuous backup through either a photo hosting or file backup website is the real way to go.
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#5 User is offline   Samr614 

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  Posted 07 June 2012 - 09:36 AM

Of course we'll have them, someone will make them in low volumes for people like this guy. You can still play 8-tracks, can't you? Records?
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#6 User is offline   Sunsmasher 

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Posted 07 June 2012 - 01:44 PM

View PostSamr614, on 07 June 2012 - 09:36 AM, said:

Of course we'll have them, someone will make them in low volumes for people like this guy. You can still play 8-tracks, can't you? Records?

You CAN play 8 tracks, but it sure wouldn't be easy.
I personally loved 8 trk when it existed, but the only players I've seen in the last 10 years or so were at garage sales....
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#7 User is offline   jeepmanjr 

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  Posted 08 June 2012 - 06:27 AM

Personally, I don't back up/save much of anything to DVD. I agree with TheWerewolf and nafhan. I put all my data on redundant hard drives (server + backup drives). I have around 150gb just in music...that's a lot of DVD's!! And the damage factor...I don't want to chance it. Not to mention the room it would take to store 500gb+ of data and the cost to purchase those DVD's (for a one-time use). Maybe I'm missing the original point, but for me DVD's are a non-starter.
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#8 User is offline   jeepmanjr 

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  Posted 08 June 2012 - 06:27 AM

Personally, I don't back up/save much of anything to DVD. I agree with TheWerewolf and nafhan. I put all my data on redundant hard drives (server + backup drives). I have around 150gb just in music...that's a lot of DVD's!! And the damage factor...I don't want to chance it. Not to mention the room it would take to store 500gb+ of data and the cost to purchase those DVD's (for a one-time use). Maybe I'm missing the original point, but for me DVD's are a non-starter.
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#9 User is offline   JimH443 

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  Posted 08 June 2012 - 11:09 AM

Let's go back a couple decades...

Back then, almost every computer had 3.5" floppy drives - and maybe as many as half also had 5.25" floppies.

If someone were to hand you a floppy disk today... what would you have to do to read it? I can't think of a single computer I have access to that could read it.

Similarly, storage methods that are common (to the point of being taken for granted) could easily be almost inaccessible 20 years from now.
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#10 User is online   MLStrand56 

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  Posted 15 June 2012 - 02:06 AM

Due to the already longevity of DVD's, I think you'll always be able to find somebody with a DVD reader (ME), even if You don't have one.

In the even that DVD Burners go out of fashion, I'll stock pile enough of them to see me through the after-life.

Future Data Archive media: Who can predict how HUGE our data archive requirements will be in 20-30 yrs. I'm already at the point of requiring a DL Blu-Burner just for archiving data. 50gig is good Today, Tomorrow?????

MLStrand56
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#11 User is offline   Snogreen 

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  Posted 14 December 2012 - 03:40 PM

At the rate Toshiba and Windows are going, the software won't be able to operate optical drives NEXT WEEK.
Since upgrading W7 to W8, my Tosh refuses to operate my optical drive - it sees it, but error message says there are "issues", and that's it ! Both Microsoft and Toshiba have been completely useless if finding a fix (or even pretend to be willing, for that matter!)
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#12 User is offline   JimH443 

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Posted 14 December 2012 - 06:12 PM

View PostSnogreen, on 14 December 2012 - 03:40 PM, said:

At the rate Toshiba and Windows are going, the software won't be able to operate optical drives NEXT WEEK.
Since upgrading W7 to W8, my Tosh refuses to operate my optical drive - it sees it, but error message says there are "issues", and that's it ! Both Microsoft and Toshiba have been completely useless if finding a fix (or even pretend to be willing, for that matter!)


Drivers for older hardware (*) are frequently a problem when a brand new OS is released. Often this issue is eventually resolved, but sometimes it never is.

(*) "older hardware" refers to any equipment that did not come with the OS pre-installed, and therefore was never tested by the mfr to ensure proper operation.
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