[linuxrants7xpg]

Hologram, on 05 January 2013 - 02:06 AM, said:

When you go around recommending people take action, i.e. short AAPL based on your opinion even in retrospect, then how you manage your personal portfolio becomes of interest. Acting upon your own recommendations demonstrates your confidence in your position.

My personal portfolio isn't relevant. A quick look at Apple is all it really takes. Apple is stagnant and over-valued. They're operating on momentum right now, and even their golden boy Jonathan Ive is afraid of making changes to their product line and possibly making Apple customers "mad". They're ripe for a fall, and quite possibly a very big one.

Hologram, on 05 January 2013 - 02:06 AM, said:

If you shorted AAPL at its peak, good for you, that was pretty smart. If you didn't, why should anyone listen to your recommendations?

Not at it's absolute peak, but close enough that I'm very pleased with my choice. So, why should anybody listen to your recommendations?

[Hologram]

linuxrants7xpg, on 06 January 2013 - 09:49 AM, said:

Hologram, on 05 January 2013 - 01:38 AM, said:

Yes, I selected end 2007 for a reason but not the one you stated. I chose that date to point out that Google's stock price is virtually the same today as it was five years ago. Sorry if you found that "obfuscating". It wasn't my intention to confuse you.

The following graph will hopefully help clarify things as it shows relative growth of AAPL versus GOOG since the latter's IPO.

<<chart>>

As you can see, GOOG is dead in the water, relatively speaking despite Android's market share gains over the last year or so.

Sorry, but a company that's shown solid and steady increase since 2009 is not "dead in the water". Further, I'd say that it's a more solid investment than Apple at this point. Apple as a company has a stagnant product line, and has lost almost 25% of their stock value over the last 3 months.

I said "relatively speaking". Take a look at the graph I posted of relative performance since Google's IPO. Can you honestly say otherwise?

There is no doubt Google's stock price is doing well these days. I'm not debating that. You can pick and choose dates to demonstrate whatever you want. All I'm saying is that Google stock price is not much higher today than it was at the end of 2007, basically zero growth since then. Comparatively speaking, Android has had an almost negligible impact on Google stock price. So far Google has spent a lot of money on Android and spent a significant amount to purchase Motorola in order to protect Android from legal challenges. The problem is that Android has yet to prove that it can generate revenue for Google despite Samsung's success in grabbing significant market share for Android.

Despite the last three months, AAPL is still up over 30% in 2012.

Quote

There's no indications that Apple is going to be putting out anything interesting in the near future.

If you follow AAPL closely enough to make intelligent investment decisions then you know that lack of such indications are not unusual for Apple. Apple is quite secretive about what they're working on, unlike many in the tech industry.

Quote

I'm expecting Apple to continue to decline, and Google to continue to steadily climb.

You're entitled to your expectations, opinions and, ultimately, your investment decisions.

The moment you express them in a public forum you're entitled to have your view challenged.

This post has been edited by Hologram: 08 January 2013 - 05:41 AM

[Hologram]

linuxrants7xpg, on 06 January 2013 - 10:02 AM, said:

Hologram, on 05 January 2013 - 02:06 AM, said:

When you go around recommending people take action, i.e. short AAPL based on your opinion even in retrospect, then how you manage your personal portfolio becomes of interest. Acting upon your own recommendations demonstrates your confidence in your position.

My personal portfolio isn't relevant. A quick look at Apple is all it really takes. Apple is stagnant and over-valued. They're operating on momentum right now, and even their golden boy Jonathan Ive is afraid of making changes to their product line and possibly making Apple customers "mad". They're ripe for a fall, and quite possibly a very big one.

I don't care about your portfolio. All I care to know is whether you're putting money where your mouth is. That's all. It's easy to make predictions. Betting your life's savings on them is a different story.

Re: A quick look at Apple is all it really takes.

Sorry. I mistook your comments as coming from someone who has more than a summary knowledge of AAPL. I've been studying Apple for several years now. It's understandable that we might have a divergence of opinion.

linuxrants7xpg, on 06 January 2013 - 10:02 AM, said:

Hologram, on 05 January 2013 - 02:06 AM, said:

If you shorted AAPL at its peak, good for you, that was pretty smart. If you didn't, why should anyone listen to your recommendations?

Not at it's absolute peak, but close enough that I'm very pleased with my choice. So, why should anybody listen to your recommendations?

What exactly did I recommend?

I learned many years ago that recommendations from "experts" and "pseudo-experts" are worthless. I am neither, so I have no expectation that anyone should follow my recommendations even if I expressed any. Well, maybe "perform your own due diligence" might be an exception. This doesn't preclude me from expressing my views and interpreting available information from my perspective.