Windows XP's Days are Really Numbered Now
#42
Posted 11 February 2009 - 05:47 AM
Will this measure on the part of Microsoft force XP users to upgrade to Windows Vista or Windows 7, as presumably is Microsift's intention ? Or will it, in a large number of cases, rather force them to consider the previously unthinkable, i e, abandoning Microsoft OS and moving to, say, a Linux distro (Ubuntu, which will have a new fresh version, 9.04 out the door shortly after XP is moved to «extended support» ?) or Mac ? The latter would require replacing existing hardware, but the former would not. Given the present economic situation, it will be interesting to see which way both firms and private persons move....
Henri
Henri
#43
Posted 11 February 2009 - 06:36 AM
You might want to read the article again. First - this is the normal progression for an OS and XP's is actually behind the normal process. The normal procedure for MS is that an OS in in "mainstream" support for 5 years. During this 5 year period, MS develops and sends out updates for system enhancement and improvement (as well as security updates). Some of these improvements are put in the Service Packs but not the small periodic updates which are more about security patches. A case in point would be SP2 for XP which actually changed the OS so significantly, the how to books all had to be re-written.
Windows XP was in "mainstream" support for 8 years not the normal 5. Now XP is moving to the "extended" support phase. During this phase, security holes that are discovered will still be patched through the individual downloaded updates that we are accustomed to. By the time this process ends in 2014, Vista will be in the "extended" support and Windows 7 will be about to enter it. This is one reason some corporate customers leap frog systems. The company I retired from never had XP on machines other than as a test. They kept Windows 2000 Pro and late last year started the roll out of Vista. They will likewise most likely skip Windows 7, opting to keep Vista on systems for 10 years as they did Win2K, and then jumping over Win7 to it's successor.
For those using XP, there is no immediate impact. XP will continue and the monthly security updates will continue for at least the next 5 years. By the time that point comes, the vast majority of people and companies will have replaced their systems and gone to either Vista or Windows 7. Like any other OS, by the time that point comes, the OS just fades away. XP will at that point be 13 years old, and supported longer than any other Windows version.
Windows XP was in "mainstream" support for 8 years not the normal 5. Now XP is moving to the "extended" support phase. During this phase, security holes that are discovered will still be patched through the individual downloaded updates that we are accustomed to. By the time this process ends in 2014, Vista will be in the "extended" support and Windows 7 will be about to enter it. This is one reason some corporate customers leap frog systems. The company I retired from never had XP on machines other than as a test. They kept Windows 2000 Pro and late last year started the roll out of Vista. They will likewise most likely skip Windows 7, opting to keep Vista on systems for 10 years as they did Win2K, and then jumping over Win7 to it's successor.
For those using XP, there is no immediate impact. XP will continue and the monthly security updates will continue for at least the next 5 years. By the time that point comes, the vast majority of people and companies will have replaced their systems and gone to either Vista or Windows 7. Like any other OS, by the time that point comes, the OS just fades away. XP will at that point be 13 years old, and supported longer than any other Windows version.
#44
Posted 11 February 2009 - 07:27 AM
mhenriday said:
Will this measure on the part of Microsoft force XP users to upgrade to Windows Vista or Windows 7, as presumably is Microsift's intention ? Or will it, in a large number of cases, rather force them to consider the previously unthinkable, i e, abandoning Microsoft OS and moving to, say, a Linux distro (Ubuntu, which will have a new fresh version, 9.04 out the door shortly after XP is moved to «extended support» ?) or Mac ? The latter would require replacing existing hardware, but the former would not. Given the present economic situation, it will be interesting to see which way both firms and private persons move....
Henri
Henri
When I am not doing, during idle times in my life, I have been looking at trends and patterns to better understand reality as-it-is for the past forty years or so. It has been, and still is interesting.
Thankfully, I usually make my mind faster than that and do not require further analysis to know what is working, and what isn’t... It is sad however, that some people never learn…
My observations of reality as-it-is are that after thirty years, people worldwide have moved in this direction:
Microsoft: 89%
Apple: 10%
Linux / Unix and others: 1%
And Microsoft Windows XP also has the distinction of being the #1 pirated Operating System in the world today. And these figures never come into official statistics... Windows XP may be discontinued. But will go on regardless. Just not officially supported or improved...
How many people are on Earth? Roughly six billion?
~~~~~~~~~~
When you lose, don't lose the lesson.
~ The Dalai Lama
Review past lessons to discover anew.
{Chinese Proverb}
A cynic is not merely one who reads bitter lessons from the past, he is one who is prematurely disappointed in the future.
~ Sydney J. Harris
To get a better education it is sometimes not possible to choose the curriculum. Ultimately, this is okay; the lessons we don't feel inclined to learn are often those we can benefit from the most.
~ Phil Booth
Our enemies teach us life's most valuable lessons.
{Chinese Proverb}
The greatest lesson in life is to know that even fools are right sometimes.
~ Winston Churchill, 1874-1965, English Politician/Author/Nobel Prize Winner
Life is a succession of lessons which must be lived to be understood.
~ Ralph Waldo Emerson {1803-1882 American Poet & Essayist}
According to http://www.linuxscre...ommends-ubuntu/ even Bill Gates recommends Ubuntu!

Those Linux nerds, I see where they came up with the name Ubuntu.

And as a certifiable wintarded nerd myself, I totally approve! (Nice tattoo) Uber means super I think in German? Bun means 4$$ and Tu means Tux the Linux penguin? My first Linux distro was from 'SoftLanding Linux Systems (SLS)' back in 1992. And I loved it. I also use and love Ubuntu too! Sounds cool too! I like those cunning names... {But I didn't move away from Windows either...}
#45
Posted 11 February 2009 - 11:23 AM
Another interesting article on
Microsoft's recent behavior:
http://weblog.infowo...2009/02/windows7is_it.html
Microsoft's recent behavior:
http://weblog.infowo...2009/02/windows7is_it.html
#46
Posted 11 February 2009 - 12:06 PM
I simply see it as natural evolution of Windows. The next version presumably will learn from past mistakes. But Microsoft is greedy, and has produced inane operating systems such as Millenium. I preferred Windows 98B... But in 2000, they also came out with Windows 2000 built on NT. If you remember, back then, lots of satisfied users were dumping on NT, saying "who needs it?"...
I see the same pattern all over again.
For me it's simple. 64-bit CPU, will use any and all Linux/Unix/whatever but in the Windows world, will use Windows 7. That os simply rocks!
I see the same pattern all over again.
For me it's simple. 64-bit CPU, will use any and all Linux/Unix/whatever but in the Windows world, will use Windows 7. That os simply rocks!
#47
Posted 11 February 2009 - 01:35 PM
Your market share data isn't accurate.
You're obviously using data provided by data services that claim to be able to provide global usage data by tracking website hits. Unfortunately, their data is invalid, and the reason why it's invalid is because they get their data from North American websites, which, coincidentally, are frequented most often by North Americans. The results end up reflecting the North American market rather than the actual global market. Most of those using the Net today don't speak English. In fact, many non-English speakers actually have their own collection of regional websites that they use regularly. China for instance, practically has its own Internet thanks to the language barrier.
There are other data analysis methods used to track market share. Companies like Gartner and IDC use a combination of hard sales data and statistical analysis to come up with their market share figures. And their usage data for the US market correlates well with the data you provided. In other words, those tracking global share using browser data have been tracking US/North America market share all along.
How do we know this for certain? Simple. Mac market share.
It's IMPOSSIBLE for global mac market share to be anywhere near 10%. Let me break it down a bit.
Macs sell well in the US and have a US market share that's approaching 10%. However, as good as mac sales are in the US, their global sales are only a drop in the bucket when compared to global sales figures for the PC. The US makes up 15% of the global PC market. Therefore, Apple's US share alone shouldn't make up more than 1.5% of the global market. And since half of all macs are sold in the US, Apple's global market share is estimated to hover around 3% at most. Apple has yet to make it to the top five global PC vendors - the fifth place PC vendor (Toshiba) only has 4.2% of the sales...that's how big the global PC market is.
It's impossible to determine precise Linux adoption rates or market share because of how Linux is distributed. Many people who use Linux are also using Windows on the same machine (I'm typing this from such a system myself). Many of the people who use Linux in the third world are copying each other's installation CD rather than download the large ISOs that some distros distribute. Some of the old PCs sold by mainstream vendors are being converted into Linux boxes even as the owners buy new PCs. So there's no way to know just how many Linux users are out there.
The real question is this - Is Linux becoming more well known in mainstream circles?
The answer is yes and Google has the proof of this. Google tracks statistical trends of search terms. And their data clearly shows that the most popular Linux OSes are trending upwards everywhere and is especially strong in Asia. That's good news for Linux because that's where most of the people in the world live. Generally speaking, Linux has finally become accessible to the third world, thanks to the increasing availability of broadband. Because of Asia's third world demographic, Linux is sure to grow there.
There are some obstacles that will slow Linux adoption rates in Asia and other third world countries. The biggest one is Windows XP, because a large percentage of those with computers have been using pirated XP copies. The problem is so big there that even businesses are using them. XP will be around in Asia for a while, so Linux will have to wait for it to disappear, which will take several years.
Also to be taken into account:
-Vista and 7 will have more DRM and if MS enforces it in Asia and elsewhere, Linux will gain market share there.
-Only 15% of Asians have their own discreet Internet access. That means that PC adoption is still very low. The good news is that sales there are the strongest on the planet at the moment (particularly in netbooks).
-Despite the relatively low PC adoption rate, Asians actually make up 40% of ALL Internet users, with the bulk coming from China. The reason why Internet use is so high despite there being a low number of PC owners is because of Internet cafes.
The bottom line is that more people are using Linux than ever before, and the number is set to grow once broadband access in the third world increases. The market share for Linux is still very small compared to Windows. However, Linux is a permanent fixture in the world of computing, while Windows and OSX are solely dependent of the survival of their respective companies. This global economic crunch is going to to hurt both MS and Apple, because it's going to reduce the number of people who can afford to buy new PCs and expensive gadgets. I'm expecting that the markets will see negative growth by next year. Meanwhile, Linux will continue to improve itself as if nothing was happening.
You're obviously using data provided by data services that claim to be able to provide global usage data by tracking website hits. Unfortunately, their data is invalid, and the reason why it's invalid is because they get their data from North American websites, which, coincidentally, are frequented most often by North Americans. The results end up reflecting the North American market rather than the actual global market. Most of those using the Net today don't speak English. In fact, many non-English speakers actually have their own collection of regional websites that they use regularly. China for instance, practically has its own Internet thanks to the language barrier.
There are other data analysis methods used to track market share. Companies like Gartner and IDC use a combination of hard sales data and statistical analysis to come up with their market share figures. And their usage data for the US market correlates well with the data you provided. In other words, those tracking global share using browser data have been tracking US/North America market share all along.
How do we know this for certain? Simple. Mac market share.
It's IMPOSSIBLE for global mac market share to be anywhere near 10%. Let me break it down a bit.
Macs sell well in the US and have a US market share that's approaching 10%. However, as good as mac sales are in the US, their global sales are only a drop in the bucket when compared to global sales figures for the PC. The US makes up 15% of the global PC market. Therefore, Apple's US share alone shouldn't make up more than 1.5% of the global market. And since half of all macs are sold in the US, Apple's global market share is estimated to hover around 3% at most. Apple has yet to make it to the top five global PC vendors - the fifth place PC vendor (Toshiba) only has 4.2% of the sales...that's how big the global PC market is.
It's impossible to determine precise Linux adoption rates or market share because of how Linux is distributed. Many people who use Linux are also using Windows on the same machine (I'm typing this from such a system myself). Many of the people who use Linux in the third world are copying each other's installation CD rather than download the large ISOs that some distros distribute. Some of the old PCs sold by mainstream vendors are being converted into Linux boxes even as the owners buy new PCs. So there's no way to know just how many Linux users are out there.
The real question is this - Is Linux becoming more well known in mainstream circles?
The answer is yes and Google has the proof of this. Google tracks statistical trends of search terms. And their data clearly shows that the most popular Linux OSes are trending upwards everywhere and is especially strong in Asia. That's good news for Linux because that's where most of the people in the world live. Generally speaking, Linux has finally become accessible to the third world, thanks to the increasing availability of broadband. Because of Asia's third world demographic, Linux is sure to grow there.
There are some obstacles that will slow Linux adoption rates in Asia and other third world countries. The biggest one is Windows XP, because a large percentage of those with computers have been using pirated XP copies. The problem is so big there that even businesses are using them. XP will be around in Asia for a while, so Linux will have to wait for it to disappear, which will take several years.
Also to be taken into account:
-Vista and 7 will have more DRM and if MS enforces it in Asia and elsewhere, Linux will gain market share there.
-Only 15% of Asians have their own discreet Internet access. That means that PC adoption is still very low. The good news is that sales there are the strongest on the planet at the moment (particularly in netbooks).
-Despite the relatively low PC adoption rate, Asians actually make up 40% of ALL Internet users, with the bulk coming from China. The reason why Internet use is so high despite there being a low number of PC owners is because of Internet cafes.
The bottom line is that more people are using Linux than ever before, and the number is set to grow once broadband access in the third world increases. The market share for Linux is still very small compared to Windows. However, Linux is a permanent fixture in the world of computing, while Windows and OSX are solely dependent of the survival of their respective companies. This global economic crunch is going to to hurt both MS and Apple, because it's going to reduce the number of people who can afford to buy new PCs and expensive gadgets. I'm expecting that the markets will see negative growth by next year. Meanwhile, Linux will continue to improve itself as if nothing was happening.
#49
Posted 11 February 2009 - 02:01 PM
Who cares about market share? I like Linux, because of the Open Source concept. I like Windows, because the corporate worlds demands it. And since I am multi-lingual, I get to visit and play all over the world!
PS: you make lots of rational points, I shall amplify this last-minute post, because I've got to get on the road, like 2 minutes ago!
~~~~~~~~~
Better have it and not need it, than need it and not have it... ;)
PS: you make lots of rational points, I shall amplify this last-minute post, because I've got to get on the road, like 2 minutes ago!
~~~~~~~~~
Better have it and not need it, than need it and not have it... ;)
#50
Posted 11 February 2009 - 02:03 PM
You wouldn't be trolling, would you? In case you aren't, you said elsewhere in these forums you are a Linux user, and elsewhere you wanted things simple, now you are saying??? That you are one of the impressionable persons, that must belong??? How informative. But I doubt you could be a Linux user, that is quite a sophisticated OS, not for simple users.
~~~~~~~~~~
Wise men talk because they have something to say; fools, because they have to say something.
~ Plato
~~~~~~~~~~
Wise men talk because they have something to say; fools, because they have to say something.
~ Plato
#51
Posted 11 February 2009 - 02:21 PM
This one is hot off the presses.
Cuba's developing its own variant of Linux in order to move away from Microsoft's Windows OS. They're calling it Nova.
www.reuters.com/article/technologyNews/idUSTRE51A77S20090211?feedType=nl&feedName=ustechnology
It will be interesting to see just how this impacts on government policy in Latin American countries with close ties to Cuba. And it seems that around 20% of the computers in Cuba are already on Linux. Who would have guessed?
Cuba's developing its own variant of Linux in order to move away from Microsoft's Windows OS. They're calling it Nova.
www.reuters.com/article/technologyNews/idUSTRE51A77S20090211?feedType=nl&feedName=ustechnology
It will be interesting to see just how this impacts on government policy in Latin American countries with close ties to Cuba. And it seems that around 20% of the computers in Cuba are already on Linux. Who would have guessed?
#59
Posted 18 March 2009 - 11:52 AM
firefox01 said:
So, you dont like Vista.
What's your opinion on it?
What's your opinion on it?
I don't particularly dislike it. It just isn't my cup of tea, as I am getting all I need from XP MCE and don't see any particular reason or need to upgrade. My Brother In law is running it and really likes it as do others. I find it a bit clunky and hard to work, as well as being slower than what I am presently using. Actually, I was just being facetious when I posted that statement. coastie
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